Mike and Occam, ..tick, …tick, …tick, and whither Keker - UPDATED

“[T]he explanation of any phenomena should make as few assumptions as possible, eliminating those that make no difference in the observable predictions of the explanatory hypothesis or theory.” From the wikipedia entry on Occam’s razor.

Occam’s razor is usually the best argument against conspiracy theories. An obvious example is that the rich and powerful (like everyone else) are usually going to act on their own self-interest, and so it does not require imagining a dark conspiracy of the rich and powerful when they make the similar moves out of self-interest. This does not mean there are never conspiracies of the rich and powerful, only that there needs to be some concrete evidence of such a conspiracy to imagine one.

What does it have to do with Scruggs this week? I think we now have enough public information to pretty close to fully understand the hiring of Mike Moore by Zach Scruggs:

• Moore has a long and close relationship with the Scruggs family that I am sure includes a high level of mutual trust. Moore has the kind of loyalty that leads him to do things like accompany Scruggs to his grand jury testimony in the Paul Minor case.
• The addition of more lawyers from Kansas City and Graves’s public comment about why Zach won’t plead both make clear that this is about building a legal team for trial. While Mike Moore has almost no trial experience in decades, and probably no federal criminal experience at all, he is very much a known local lawyer. I’m not fully sure how his presence in the case will come across to a jury. It’s not impossible that it will be a net benefit.
• Dickie Scruggs makes decisions with a serious eye toward public relations and also toward personal relationships. I can see him thinking he’s made the smart move here on both fronts, and that’s having an influence on Zach.
• Moore likes being in the public eye, to put it mildly, and to a degree may even believe there is no such thing as bad publicity.

And I think each of the points I just made suggests that Zach has made a decision about adding Mike Moore that has some arguable advantages. It’s a judgment call, although in my judgment not the smartest decision I’ve seen.

And so where does that leave us? “tick… tick… tick”– we are 13 days from a trial setting that Judge Biggers has done everything he can to communicate is set in stone. The order he entered yesterday says: “The amended and/or additional motions are, therefore, due to be filed no later than Wednesday, March 19, 2008.” That’s tomorrow. “This extension in no way affects any other deadlines previously set forth in this cause, including the change of plea deadline of March 17, 2008, or the trial date of March 31, 2008.”

I predict we will see additional motions (I think some but not all of the issues mentioned in court can be resolved by negotiation), which probably means a motions hearing the first of next week. I also predict that bringing Moore in will have nothing to do with what happens to the trial setting (that is, it won’t be the basis for a motion to continue that goes anywhere) and that there will have to be a big surprise development to delay the trial.

I am not willing to make a prediction about a guilty plea except these: It sure looks like no plea, but if Zach and the government do come to an arrangement, I would be shocked if the plea deadline stops a plea from being accepted. The changes in what happened over the last few days make this case so different, I think the judge would allow the deadline to be waived. Which is not to say there will be a plea.

Finally, John Keker: I see Folo’s link to Patsy Brumfeld’s report about John Keker — that he’s jumping back into the case on Zach’s side. Says who? It’s not on PACER, and I don’t see any public sign of it other than the report in the Daily Journal. Anyone else have any idea where this originated? This case has had some odd reporting that looks in retrospect like someone’s trial balloons (e.g. the Zach-gets-a-deferred-sentence report from Friday on the Clarion Ledger site). Is this another of those?

Update:  After a comment from dmwriter, I noted that on PACER, Keker does show up now as a lawyer for Zach, although I see no pleading in which they’ve made that move formally.  Then dmwriter, as also noted by him in comments below, wrote Keker directly (hey! dmwriter is a reporter!) who wrote back: ““The computer has it wrong. I have not been added, and won’t be. We are trying to fix it now.”

NMC